Speaking on Monday, two days after Israel blamed Lebanon’s Hezbollah for the attack that killed 12 people in the occupied Golan Heights, White House official John Kirby reiterated US support for Israel, but emphasised that Washington still wanted regional de-escalation.
“We believe that there is still time and space for a diplomatic solution,” Kirby said, as thoughts turned to what Israel’s next move would be, and whether it would trigger a long-feared all-out regional war.
The United States has publicly stated that it does not want this eventuality, even as it sent forces to the Middle East following the October 7 attack on Israel, and the beginning of the war on Gaza, in a show of support for Tel Aviv.
The Middle East, and the wider world, has held its breath on several occasions since then, most notably when Israel killed two Iranian generals at Tehran’s consulate in Damascus in April, followed by a telegraphed Iranian attack on Israel.
At the time, reports indicated that the US had worked to hold back Israel from escalating and to also keep Israel from launching a full-scale attack on Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Meanwhile, the US has been one of the countries mediating a potential ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, although that looks to have encountered several stumbling blocks over the past few months.
Now, after the brazen assassination of Hamas’s political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran – which the Palestinian group and Iran blame on Israel – and the killing of Hezbollah senior commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut, all within a few hours, the US’s twin objectives of a ceasefire and regional de-escalation look like they are in tatters.
Brian Finucane, a senior adviser with the International Crisis Group’s US Program, told Al Jazeera that regional de-escalation would ultimately emerge after a ceasefire in Gaza, and that, without one, the potential for an expanded conflict drawing in US forces stationed in the region was always present.
“If you want to avoid further escalation in the region, including an escalation that involves US troops, you’re going to need to secure a ceasefire in Gaza. That’s what is necessary to calm things down with the Houthis [in Yemen], with Hezbollah, and continue the lull in attacks on US troops in Syria and Iraq,” Finucane said.
But, with the recent attacks, Finucane believes that the current prospects for a US-brokered ceasefire have been complicated, if not derailed, in the short term.